ASOIAF House Dayne is a red herring
So since I believe R + L = D I suspect that the promise was about Dany. R + L = J is not even a theory, it is apparently so obvious in the first book that I think a twist is possible. Martin breaks expectations, and most of the fandom clearly expect Jon to end up being the rightful king. It's so standard 0815 fantasy when Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lynna's tragic love that I would lose some respect for Martin if he just walked this route.
How is that supposed to have been logistically possible at all? Dany was born on Dragonstone, witnessed to this, and her progression through the Free Cities is well documented. At no point did she have anything to do with Ned. And should you want to argue that she was born and removed before Ned arrived, please explain why the Kingsguards didn't go with her to escort the heir to the throne?
And what should be standard about it, if you please? Lyanna was 14! And Rhaegar is portrayed as obsessed with fathering three chosen children, no matter what the cost. The only "tragic love" there is is that the fandom reads into it because some of the characters do.
As I said ... sometimes a tree is just a tree. You don't build an absolutely logical secret across five books, in which an honorable character sacrifices them with the statement of having fathered a bastard in order to protect the son of your beloved sister from the revenge of his best friend, just for the sake of it then to say "Ätsch, it was all a Red Herring, none of it has any meaning! Haha, fooled!" In my opinion THAT would be infantile and THAT would make Martin lose a lot of respect.
And as I said, Martin combs genre conventions against the grain, not the expectations he stirs up himself. If Jon somehow got the throne as the secret prince in the end, that would be standard, but that's obviously not the case. If the parallels to Azor Ahai come true, then he will die lonely and alone on his quest to save the world.
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